Kushvinder Vohra, Former Chairman of the Central Water Commission and Secretary-rank Official with the Government of India, and former Indian Commissioner to the Indus

There is considerable misinformation surrounding the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), disseminated through various articles published in newspapers, magazines, and online forums, including in Pakistan. Articles written by so-called elites or researchers are essentially general rhetoric designed to shape Pakistani public opinion, without factual foundation.

While India has suspended the Treaty, it is important to examine the real issues behind the alleged water shortage widely discussed in Pakistan. Pakistan consistently blames India for its water difficulties, as if India should provide all the water Pakistan deems necessary. Under Article III of the Treaty, India was required to allow western rivers' waters to flow, except for uses permitted to it. Thus, the water flows received by Pakistan at any given time depend on various factors, such as rainfall in watersheds, snowmelt, and India's authorized uses.

According to several research institutes, Pakistan receives an average of approximately 140 million acre-feet (MAF) of water annually in the Indus basin from western rivers, which remains higher than the 135 MAF estimated at the time of the Treaty. Conversely, eastern rivers' flows have reportedly decreased by about 15%, from 33 MAF to the estimate established at that time.

Why all this rhetoric against India? Upon deeper examination, the truth is evident. Of approximately 140 MAF, Pakistan's irrigation diversion is only about 104 MAF; the rest is either wasted in the system or flows into the sea. The real problem of Pakistan's alleged water shortage lies in mismanagement of received water and other factors Pakistani experts rarely discuss. There is very little public debate on inaction and failure by Pakistani actors, including the Pakistani government, in managing these precious water resources, especially as ground realities have changed enormously since the Treaty's signing in 1960.

Is this a deliberate agenda to always blame India and play the victimization card to divert attention from the real problem: water mismanagement in Pakistan?

Water use in Pakistan

In the 1950s, Pakistan used approximately 66 MAF of water to irrigate about 21 million acres (MAc) of land in the Indus basin. Water use in the Indus basin has since increased to 104 MAF to irrigate approximately 34 MAc. Notably, the quantity of water used per unit of irrigated area is almost the same as in 1960. However, ground realities have changed. Population has increased, reducing per capita water availability. This also applies to India. Thus, water management practices applied at the time of the Treaty are now completely outdated and require understanding of complex water-food-energy linkages. India has already made significant progress in this area, while Pakistan has not yet seriously undertaken this approach.

Despite receiving 33 MAF of water (20% of total waters), India irrigates approximately 26 MAc in the eastern part of the Indus basin. This demonstrates that water productivity in Pakistan is very low.

Poor water governance in Pakistan

A World Bank Group study report titled "Pakistan – Getting more from water" (with information updated through September 2018) adopted a long-term perspective on Pakistan's water security through 2047. The study concludes that Pakistan is well-endowed with water, including in the Indus basin, with only 16 other countries having more water. However, as the world's sixth most populous country, per capita water availability is low.

It should be emphasized that the reduction in available water per capita in Pakistan is primarily due to population increase; quantitatively, on average, the country receives the same amount of water, or even more, in the Indus basin than at the time of the Indus Waters Treaty's signing. Furthermore, according to this report, water security can represent a challenge, but it does not define a country's economic destiny. Notably, 32 countries have less water per person than Pakistan; among them, average per capita income is ten times higher than Pakistan's. Only six of these 32 countries are poorer than Pakistan.