From September to November, average temperatures are expected to exceed seasonal norms across all regions of the island. A trend that calls for vigilance, particularly regarding its possible consequences on water resources and agricultural activities. Widespread heat. The country could experience a particularly warm quarter. According to seasonal forecasts from the General Directorate of Meteorology, average temperatures will be higher than climatological norms in all regions of Madagascar between September and November 2026. This trend affects both the Highlands and coastal regions as well as the South. It occurs in the context of a transition from a strong El Niño episode, whose evolution is among the main parameters monitored by global meteorological centers. Rainfall. While heat should affect the entire territory, precipitation will present a much more contrasted situation. The regions of Melaky, Menabe, Atsimo-Andrefana, Anosy, Androy and Ihorombe, as well as the eastern slopes of the Highlands, should experience normal to below-normal seasonal precipitation. In other regions, precipitation should be normal to above normal. Three concerns. This combination of higher temperatures and potentially deficient rainfall in certain areas deserves particular attention. Greater heat can notably increase evaporation and water needs, with possible repercussions on crops, pastures and water supply. The situation does not, however, mean that Madagascar will experience three months of drought. Rather, it reflects a climate evolution that varies by region, which will require regular monitoring of forecasts during the quarter.