The ariary could depreciate again. The first half of 2026 saw a notable appreciation of the ariary on the interbank foreign exchange market (MID). However, the trend could reverse due to a resumption of imports in the final six months of the year. A return to ariary depreciation cannot be ruled out. According to data from Banky Foiben'i Madagasikara (BFM), the ariary recorded significant appreciation during the first half of the year. From end-December 2025 to end-June 2026, the national currency appreciated 7.0% against the US dollar and 9.3% against the euro. This development reflects a favorable foreign exchange flow situation during the period. Unmet Demand A trend that does not necessarily mean tensions have disappeared on the foreign exchange market. According to elements presented in BFM's monetary policy decision, foreign currency demand remains higher than supply, with significant unmet needs persisting. Their average daily amount is estimated at 15.4 million dollars and reached 24.3 million dollars for the petroleum sector alone on July 20, 2026. Ultimately, the coming months appear to be a transition period for Madagascar's foreign exchange market. "After a first half marked by significant appreciation of the national currency, the second half could be increasingly dominated by a recovery in foreign currency needs," observers estimate. Thus, the gradual recovery of imports should alter the configuration of the interbank foreign exchange market. Buyer Indeed, after a period marked by ariary appreciation, foreign currency demand should progressively strengthen, particularly to finance purchases of goods and services abroad. The market could thus become increasingly "buyer-driven," characterized by greater foreign currency demand from economic operators. This development will be decisive for the ariary's future trajectory. However, BFM emphasizes that exchange rates will depend primarily on the balance between foreign currency supply and demand flows. In other words, an increase in imports will not necessarily, by itself, lead to ariary depreciation: the scale of export revenues and other foreign currency inflows will be a determining factor.