The national consultation calendar risks compressing the Refoundation timeline. Resolutions are not expected until after May 2027, while a first electoral deadline should occur between May and July. State officials, church leaders and members of the national consultation coordination committee posed for a family photo on Tuesday.
A puzzle to solve. Electoral technicians and some legal experts are now working on the right formula to meet the deadlines set in the document titled Program for the Refoundation of the Republic.
The national consultation schedule, prepared by the Ecumenical Council of Christian Churches of Madagascar (FFKM), plans for the publication of national consultation resolutions after May 2027. A timeline that could significantly reduce room for maneuver to meet the electoral deadlines announced in the Refoundation Program.
According to the timing in the document submitted to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) on February 28, a first electoral deadline should occur between May and July 2027. This should be a referendum or constitutional election. A schedule that is already tight, according to a former member of the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI), but should nonetheless allow for holding the presidential election before the end of 2027.
The two schedules—that of the churches and that of the state—are therefore interdependent. The drafting of constitutional project(s) must indeed be based on national consultation resolutions. "It will be really difficult to have a first election for May and July 2027 if national consultation resolutions are only known after May 2027," acknowledges an electoral technician.
According to the source, account must be taken of time for drafting fundamental law project(s) and various examination and adoption procedures prior to submission to citizen vote. It also suggests accounting for a period of popularizing the constitutional project(s), so the population understands the content and stakes to vote with full knowledge. The same applies if consultation decides to establish a Constituent Assembly.
In their speeches during the national consultation launch ceremony at Voara Andohatapenaka village on Tuesday, Colonel Thierry Rampanarivo, senior advisor for Refoundation, and Prime Minister Mamitiana Rajaonarison sought to reassure regarding the state's commitment to respecting the Refoundation schedule.
"The government I lead will provide total support to the national consultation to not exceed the established schedule. So that the Refoundation is realized in 2027, and so Malagasy people have a legally elected Government," assures the Mahazoarivo resident.
Another Path
Senior Advisor Rampanarivo states that "the objective is to respect the deadline and conduct elections in transparent, credible, peaceful and universally accepted conditions." He recalls that political consultations led by Colonel Michaël Randrianirina, head of state, focus on seeking consensus on electoral governance. According to him, national consultation and electoral governance reform can proceed simultaneously.
The political process running parallel to national consultation could indeed be the path allowing those in power to respect the Refoundation Program timeline. At least, to organize a presidential election before end of 2027. Upon returning from the SADC Summit on August 18, Colonel Randrianirina explained that his initiative aims to accelerate the election process.
Behind the scenes, some suggest the possibility that consultations or political dialogue establish presidential election organization before a constitutional referendum to meet the commitment of completing transition in twenty-four months. The idea would be for political actors to first find consensus on electoral governance. Then proceed to elect a new Republic president. And leave it to him to organize a referendum or constitutional election.
This scenario could have legal basis in the Constitutional Court (HCC) decision of November 6, 2025, responding to a request for interpretation of its October 14, 2025 decision, notably on the material impossibility of holding the presidential election within thirty days.