The Indian Ocean island is accelerating its rapprochement with Moscow. Military cooperation, mining interests, electoral assistance. The strategy deployed by Russia in Madagascar recalls, in many respects, that implemented in the Central African Republic. This choice carries the risk of growing dependence on the Kremlin and capture of the country's strategic resources, at a time when the transition is supposed to prepare a return to constitutional order. It has become commonplace in Africa. Whenever a coup leader takes the helm of state, he hastens to revisit his country's traditional alliances and engage it in risky ventures, despite having received no mandate from the people. This is exactly what happened in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. And this is what is unfolding in Madagascar, where colonel Michaël Randrianirina's Russian orientation is steering the island down the same path as the Central African Republic. Recall that just months after his October 2025 coup, the Malagasy junta leader rushed to Moscow. On February 19, 2026, Vladimir Putin outlined a list of sectors of interest to Russia: agriculture, geology, mining, health and training. Of all these domains, only one truly interests the Kremlin: mining exploitation. Soon, Russian Africa Corps instructors arrived on the Great Island. They settled in the Ivato parachute battalion camp, officially to train the Malagasy army. This Russian offensive in Madagascar also finds support within political institutions. In this regard, National Assembly president Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko is one of the most engaged figures in strengthening relations between Antananarivo and Moscow. Since the transition authorities came to power, he has multiplied exchanges with Russian representatives, advocating for deepened parliamentary, economic and strategic cooperation. Several observers describe him as one of the principal architects of rapprochement between the two countries. His role extends beyond institutional matters. In a context where Russia seeks to consolidate its influence in the Indian Ocean, the National Assembly president contributes to giving political expression to this rapprochement, supporting expanded partnerships in sectors deemed priorities by Moscow, notably mines, energy and infrastructure. For analysts, this convergence between the highest state authorities and Russian interests reinforces the Kremlin's implantation strategy in Madagascar, where military, economic and diplomatic influence advances in parallel. Praetorian Guards This is exactly how Russian Wagner forces arrived in the Central African Republic. Under the pretext of delivering weapons to fight armed groups and training Central African soldiers, they became permanently established in the country. As in the Central African Republic, the arrival of Russians in Madagascar was followed by a violent anti-French campaign. From training the army, Russians gradually transform into praetorian guards of Malagasy power. Exactly as Wagner mercenaries became guardian angels to Faustin-Archange Touadéra. Recall that the Central African Republic's largest gold mine, Ndassima, was entrusted by Central African authorities to the Wagner group, which exploits it without paying taxes owed to the state. Russians generally only interest themselves in extractive resources. In Madagascar, they will seize the island's mineral wealth to the detriment of its public finances. Malagasy associations are right to contest Moscow's proposal to provide "technical support" to organizing the 2027 ballot, supposed to end the transition. Because this would open the door to Russian interference in Malagasy affairs and manipulation of results. Exactly as happened in the Central African Republic, where Russians clearly forced Faustin Archange Touadéra into a third term as head of state to continue plundering the country's resources. Weakened State and Impoverished People It is evident that the Russian proposal for "technical support" to the electoral process is a maneuver designed to keep the current junta leader at the head of Madagascar. One can be fairly certain that Michaël Randrianirina will do everything to be a candidate in this ballot and maintain himself beyond the time allotted for the transition. This is the only motivation throwing him into Moscow's arms. Because he fears that, when the time comes, Madagascar's traditional partners will demand accountability if he does not honor his commitments. The Central African Republic already shows the result of this type of gamble, with a weakened state and impoverished people.