Is famine once again a threat? The question arises in light of tensions emerging across several regions of Madagascar. An equation with multiple unknowns. Particularly in the Grand South, where the population faces progressive depletion of food stocks, weak household incomes, and climate uncertainties that already raise fears of another difficult period, potentially extending into early 2027. Analysts from FEWS NET, a network specializing in anticipating food crises, report an "early lean season that could now develop between July 2026 and January 2027." For the poorest households, the main risk is now seeing food reserves exhausted well before the next harvest arrives. With all the large-scale social hardships this entails, affecting no fewer than 2.12 million people who should find themselves in situations requiring urgent food assistance or facing a high risk of falling into such situations. Worse, the situation could further deteriorate between October 2026 and January 2027, at the height of the next lean season, during which approximately 3.72 million people could face acute food insecurity. This projection calls, in any case, for vigilance from the transitional authorities, who will be tested on their capacity to respond effectively to a situation as difficult as the threat of food insecurity. The question thus arises: how can this new lean season be prevented from becoming another food crisis? The answer will depend as much on anticipating and targeting aid as on the evolution of prices, household incomes, and especially the next rainy season. An equation with multiple unknowns to solve for the transitional government, which cannot afford to hesitate.