During his meeting with South African counterpart Cyril Ramaphosa, who also serves as interim president of SADC, the head of state set the first electoral date. Recalling the Refoundation timeline, he announced the first ballot for July 2027.

It is confirmed. The first electoral deadline will be July 2027, barring any program changes. Colonel Michaël Randrianirina, head of state, informed his South African counterpart Cyril Ramaphosa of this yesterday in Durban during their meeting on the sidelines of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Summit.

According to the Refoundation Presidency communiqué, the occupant of Iavoloha "recalled" this first electoral deadline while addressing the timeline outlined in the document titled "Program of the Refoundation of the Republic." This document, submitted to SADC on February 28, outlines the various stages of the refoundation process over a twenty-four-month period beginning last January.

According to the Refoundation timeline, this first electoral deadline that Colonel Randrianirina mentioned to his South African counterpart should be either a referendum or constitutional election. Subsequently, the document submitted to SADC also provides for a presidential election before December 2027. However, the presidency communiqué does not specify the exact nature of the ballot announced by the head of state.

At first glance, emphasizing this first electoral meeting is a way to reassure the regional organization, through its interim president, of Madagascar's authorities' commitment to honoring their pledge. Moreover, with this "reminder" made by the senior officer in Durban, the political calendar is beginning to take shape. The announcement of an election in July 2027 could constitute, at this stage, a temporal reference point.

To date, the national consultation appears unclear. At the beginning of the transition, it was indicated that national consultation would define the political framework, legal basis, and institutional structure of the refoundation process and elections leading to constitutional order. The national consultation, whose conduct was entrusted to the Ecumenical Council of Christian Churches of Madagascar (FFKM).

Political Dialogue

According to the Presidential communiqué, during his meeting with Cyril Ramaphosa yesterday, Colonel Randrianirina indicated that Voara village in Andohatapenaka is being developed to host the FFKM headquarters during the national consultation process. However, since the publication of a summary calendar of the various stages of this consultation in July, the ecclesiastical institution has not provided further updates.

In that calendar, the FFKM indicated that national consultation should concretely begin this August. The Churches aim to conduct the consultation starting from Fokontany, then at commune and regional levels, before concluding at the national level. But time is working against them. Any delay in the pre-established schedule risks affecting state commitments regarding electoral deadlines.

Meanwhile, the occupant of Iavoloha highlighted the holding of youth consultation whose resolutions were submitted to the FFKM during the Durban meeting. He also emphasized a political reconciliation and appeasement approach, citing his reconciliation with deputy Philobert Mila Vonjy in Ambovombe on Saturday. The latter is the head of parliamentary opposition.

Nevertheless, based on political discourse since the transition began, national consultation is the strong axis of the refoundation process. In the document titled "Program of the Refoundation of the Republic," its sovereign character is emphasized. The presidency communiqué indicates, however, that the head of state noted that "the implementation of refoundation projects will continue even after the election [referring to the July election]."

It could be a way to reassure the interim president of SADC that any potential delay in the national consultation timeline would not jeopardize electoral deadlines. The presidential institution's message adds that Colonel Randrianirina also announced his initiative for "political consultation to advance election organization."

According to the occupant of Iavoloha's explanations during the closing of youth consultation, these consultations are preludes to political dialogue, an approach that will proceed parallel to the consultation.