The FFKM is keeping quiet about the national consultation as the second week of August approaches. Meanwhile, Colonel Michaël Randrianirina, head of state, is conducting consultations aimed at political dialogue. Time is running out. The deadline was clearly marked in the calendar published by the Ecumenical Council of Christian Churches of Madagascar (FFKM) on June 21. August was supposed to launch the national consultation, from fokontany to central level. So far, however, neither the topics to be discussed, nor the organizational methods, let alone precise deadlines are known.
During a meeting between the Executive and the FFKM in early June at the State Palace of Ambohitsorohitra, preparation and conduct of the national consultation were entrusted to the ecclesiastical institution. It was also indicated that henceforth, it would be up to the Church to communicate on the progress of the process. Since June 21, the FFKM appears to be maintaining radio silence on the subject.
As days pass, this lack of communication raises questions about the possibility of respecting the twenty-four-month deadline provided in the Refoundation timeline. In the document submitted to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) on February 28, the State aims to complete the transition through a referendum or constitutional election, followed by presidential election before the end of 2027. National consultation is nevertheless a prerequisite for all other processes inherent to Refoundation.
In reality, only peripheral initiatives have been visible so far. Pre-consultations and sectoral forums, notably the recent youth consultation, did take place. However, they struggle to dispel uncertainties surrounding the national consultation itself. This process is supposed to structure and establish the major political and institutional directions of Refoundation. Decisions that will be submitted to the verdict of the ballot box through a referendum or constitutional election.
Meanwhile, debates are shifting elsewhere. On social media, certain major questions that should be settled within the peaceful and structured framework of national consultation are already fueling heated controversy. The choice between a federal state and a unitary state is the most glaring illustration. Without an official framework, these discussions are spiraling, escaping all methodological oversight and risking exacerbating divisions.
In parallel, Colonel Michaël Randrianirina, head of state, is conducting meetings with political figures. According to his statements at the closing of the youth consultation last Saturday, these talks are part of organizing political dialogue intended to create a peaceful climate ahead of the end-of-transition electoral deadlines.
This dynamic, distinct from the national consultation entrusted to the FFKM, nevertheless raises questions about possible overlap or even competition between the two processes. Behind the stated objective of appeasement, the stakes of political dialogue are delicate. It could become the place where sensitive questions are negotiated, such as the head of state's candidacy for the next presidential election, the case of major political figures like Andry Rajoelina, former president of the Republic, as well as the fate of political personalities in detention.
Behind the scenes, some even mention the possibility of a consensus government as an outcome to these discussions. The future of the National Assembly could also be put back into play. This hypothesis is not insignificant. The dissolution of the Assembly is indeed among the main recommendations from the youth consultation. A point that achieved unanimity.
Should this option be retained within the framework of political dialogue, it could profoundly reconfigure the institutional landscape before elections. The occupant of Iavoloha also indicated that his initiative to engage in political dialogue responded to international recommendations. The international community, particularly SADC and the United Nations, is closely monitoring the execution of the Refoundation timeline.
The recent joint mission of these two bodies testifies to this international vigilance. Yet each accumulated delay further weakens the sustainability of this schedule. During a visit to Madagascar this week, Moussa Saleh Batraki, secretary general of the Organization of African, Caribbean and Pacific States (OACPS), demonstrated keen interest in the Refoundation process during his various meetings, notably with the head of state and the FFKM.