Inclusive political dialogue has emerged as the cornerstone of SADC recommendations to guide Madagascar out of transition and toward elections. For the past two weeks, Colonel Michaël Randrianiriana, heading the Refoundation of the Republic of Madagascar (PRRM), has been conducting high-level negotiations. After opening the doors of Iavoloha palace to former heads of state Marc Ravalomanana and Hery Rajaonarimampianina, the transition's strongman received delegates from KMT and Hajo Andrianainarivelo, leader of the Malagasy Miara-Miainga party (MMM), former minister and unsuccessful presidential candidate, at Ambohitsorohitra mid-week. According to an official presidential statement, the MMM leader praised the PRRM's initiative, advocating for dialogue leading to inclusive, clean, and consensual elections.

Exclusion. Yet it is precisely the term "inclusivity" that crystallizes all tensions. For SADC, a selective process is unacceptable. Among supporters of Andry Rajoelina, a major political force on the national stage, the message is crystal clear: the former Iavoloha resident must be present at the table. Otherwise, his supporters warn, the process will lose all credibility in the eyes of the international community. Whether the Refoundation regime will yield to this sine qua non condition remains to be seen. So far, radio silence prevails from authorities. On the ground, tongues are loosening and fears intensifying. Many perceive in this dynamic a targeted exclusion maneuver against Andry Rajoelina, orchestrated through a tailor-made political agreement.

Signed Agreement. Harbingers multiply, starting with power-sharing: HVM, TIM, and MMM already navigate power spheres, like TIM-stamped ministers sitting in government. Strong economic signals follow. Just last week, TIM deputy Fidèle Razara Pierre announced that Marc Ravalomanana's structures, associated with SPM (State Procurement of Madagascar), a Malagasy state company created to regulate essential goods markets, particularly rice, would lead rice collection in Vohidiala, Alaotra-Mangoro, for the state. A honeymoon far exceeding simple political maneuvering. Finally, a secret pact's shadow looms: last Sunday in Ankaramalaza, Marc Ravalomanana himself let it slip, relayed by a newspaper close to the Tiko empire magnate, that an agreement signed by three political scene figures should soon be formalized in the City of Thousands. Should this agreement materialize, former president Andry Rajoelina and his loyalists face turbulent political days ahead. The hot potato now rests with the Refoundation: will it yield to SADC's siren song by broadening negotiation circles, or prefer sealing the country's destiny among partners already seated in ministerial chairs? The transition's entire future and legitimacy depend on this decision.