Domestic
Federal State Project: Risk of Regional Fracture
The question of state structure sparked heated debates at CCI Ivato. Discussions on the form of government could deepen divisions between regions, threatening national unity. The debates surrounding state structure were particularly contentious during the national youth consultation held last week at the International Conference Centre in Ivato. Tensions escalated between defenders of a unitary state and proponents of a federal state. Some regional representatives were even attacked on social media. The exchanges during this youth consultation demonstrate that the subject is far from being mastered by the parties involved, with regionalist undertones that risk jeopardizing national unity. Indeed, it is primarily coastal regions demanding a shift toward a federal state, arguing that in the current state structure, power is heavily concentrated in Antananarivo. Many observers believe that given the temperament of Malagasy people, the threat of secessionist drift cannot be dismissed. A 180-degree change in state structure requires a long period of awareness and preparation, both psychological and technical, given the risk of fracture between different regions or even balkanization of the island. The economic blockades that marked the 2002 political crisis could resurface if the process is not properly prepared. Currently, debates on this subject appear driven by political calculations from all sides. Many citizens, including some youth consultation participants, are unaware that any change in state structure requires constitutional reform and must go through a referendum. This is likely why PRRM clarified during the closing ceremony that the final word belongs to the people through referendum. Those close to the Refoundation regime clearly favor establishing a federal state. Mahajanga I deputy Afakandro Christian, a major figure in this regime, publicly expressed his position while denouncing political manipulation and vote-buying at the youth consultation. "Take their money but choose the federal state," he declared on Facebook the day before the CCI Ivato vote. The National Assembly vice-president openly attacked former president Marc Ravalomanana, who favored a unitary state. "The unitary state would allow you to continue monopoly and avoid paying your debts, as well as the 40,000 billion fmg annual embezzlement," Afakandro Christian stated on social media. A virulent attack likely to reignite tensions between "Dada" and current regime leaders. There is a clear divergence of views between the Refoundation and the founder of the Tiko Empire on state structure. This occurs despite both camps engaging in "fiaraha-mitantana" within the current system, as TIM members are part of the government team led by Prime Minister Mamitiana Rajaonarison. Moreover, Marc Ravalomanana has recently appeared alongside Colonel Michaël Randrianirina, seemingly demonstrating their alliance ahead of political dialogue. A somewhat fragile alliance, given disagreements on certain issues and the ambitions of both figures. It is well known that the current occupant of Iavoloha and the TIM founder are potential candidates in the next presidential elections. Given the current balance of power, particularly with TIM's solid political bases throughout the country and supporters of former president Andry Rajoelina forming a large silent majority, passing the federal state through constitutional referendum is far from guaranteed for the Refoundation regime.
Source: Midi Madagasikara