S&P Global Ratings maintained Madagascar's sovereign rating at B- in a report published at the end of July, confirming the country's continued economic stabilization over the past six months. Economic growth is expected to remain moderate in the second half of the year. Growth prospects remain favorable despite recent shocks. The world's third-largest financial ratings agency published its assessment on July 27, 2026, outlining the country's economic situation. Standard & Poor's Global Ratings projects moderate growth, expected to accelerate gradually. "GDP growth should remain moderate at 3.1% in 2026 as the economy recovers from energy shocks in the first half linked to Middle East conflicts, though the suspension of automatic energy price indexation limited their transmission to inflation," the report states. Over the past six months, the national economy has continued absorbing the effects of rising oil prices caused by Middle East tensions. S&P warns, however, that "persistent geopolitical volatility remains a downside risk." Following cyclones Fytia and Gezani, the country is engaged in reconstruction, which should also support growth. According to the agency, growth will also be driven by agriculture, rising nickel demand linked to electric vehicles, and reconstruction work. "Over 2027-2029, GDP growth should stabilize around 4%." The mining sector remains a key potential economic driver. S&P emphasizes it "has strong potential, but performance remains volatile." Nickel, crucial for energy transition, still suffers from price volatility. The agency believes "greater political stability could support projects and developments." Reforms have already begun this year with the unfreezing of mining permits, suspended for sixteen years. Over 1,600 cases have been reopened under clearer frameworks, providing for 5% royalties and stability guarantees. Resilience factors also include foreign exchange reserves at satisfactory levels, continued international partner support for structural projects, and a favorable public debt structure. Structural challenges remain, however. The agency notes fragilities linked to governance, political stability, and the country's heavy import dependence. The current account deficit is following a downward trajectory amid weak commodity exports (vanilla, nickel, cobalt), structurally high food and fuel imports, and political instability weighing on textiles and tourism, all worsened by 2026 energy shocks. Mining company profit repatriation weighs on the income balance, while expatriate remittances, representing 6% of GDP, provide important counterbalance. "Long-term, we anticipate stabilization through improved exports and reduced energy import needs," the agency estimates. Political uncertainties remain a major risk factor. Combined with low per capita income, climate vulnerability, and heavy dependence on food and energy imports, they keep Madagascar in a fragile situation. "Madagascar's long-term trajectory remains linked to political stability and reform implementation pace," S&P concludes. The Refondation government has announced several measures to boost the economy, including accelerating disbursements and public revenue mobilization, broadening the tax base through digitalization, reducing exemptions, fighting corruption, and applying the new mining code to secure investments. "Their implementation depends on stabilizing the current political situation," the agency emphasizes. Between January and July 2026, this assessment constitutes S&P Global Ratings' second review. Ratings remain unchanged after six months. Madagascar thus maintains a stable macroeconomic trajectory despite ongoing reforms and various shocks facing the country.