During his trip to Egypt, PRRM Colonel Michaël Randrianirina raised the prospect of organizing political dialogue alongside national consultation. A possible Tetezamitatra cannot be ruled out. Indeed, the President of the Refoundation of the Republic of Madagascar, Colonel Michaël Randrianirina, is setting a precondition for holding the presidential election in 2027. During his visit to Egypt, the current occupant of Iavoloha declared that the holding of all electoral deadlines, including the presidential election, would depend on the outcome of political dialogue. He clarified that this is not the national consultation already entrusted to FFKM member church leaders, but rather political dialogue aimed at establishing the necessary conditions for holding the ballot by the end of 2027. His meeting with two former presidents Marc Ravalomanana and Hery Rajaonarimampianina, which took place last Tuesday at Iavoloha Palace, would be, according to the head of state, the launch or first step in this new process. For now, the CAPSAT officer has revealed no details concerning the ins and outs of this political dialogue, nor the possible guests and/or participants. However, he indicated that it will be organized in parallel with the FFKM national consultation. It is Colonel Michaël Randrianirina himself, as PRRM, who will lead the debates alongside the two aforementioned ex-presidents. Another meeting between the three personalities is reportedly planned soon.
Stratagem
This is the first time since the beginning of this political crisis that the question of political dialogue has been raised. In his explanations, Colonel Michaël Randrianirina stated: "If this political dialogue goes well, there will be no doubt about holding elections in December 2027." That is where the problem lies. Indeed, many observers are wondering, through this phase, whether the PRRM is not setting a condition for holding the ballot in 2027. Should we then understand that if this political process does not proceed properly, the date of the presidential election will be postponed and the duration of the Transition extended? Would the timeline that the Refoundation authorities presented to SADC not be respected? It is well known that at the rate things are going, any political dialogue is doomed to fail insofar as the process risks being tainted by exclusion and political calculations. Indeed, the intention of Refoundation supporters is clear: to ensure that former president Andry Rajoelina, despite being a direct belligerent in this crisis as the deposed President, is excluded from any political process and permanently banned from the Malagasy political landscape. It is also well known that the three presidents preparing to lead this political dialogue—Michaël Randrianirina, Marc Ravalomanana, and Hery Rajaonarimampianina—are already participating in the co-management of the current regime and maintain a sort of Fiaraha-mitantana. For some time, Refoundation supporters have begun preparing public opinion for the extension of the Transition. The question therefore is whether this political dialogue does not constitute a dilatory maneuver to realize this stratagem.