Unless the calendar slips again, the national consultation proper is expected this August. Announced as the cornerstone of the refoundation process launched by authorities, this phase remains surrounded by uncertainties. Church leaders within the FFKM during the service for the nation on the steps of City Hall on July 24.
Several unknowns still need to be determined in the national consultation equation as August, the month set for the start of actual debates, approaches. These uncertainties raise questions about the possibility of meeting the twenty-four-month deadline outlined in the Refoundation timeline.
The State has granted full authority to the Ecumenical Council of Christian Churches of Madagascar (FFKM) to conduct the national consultation, as well as to determine methodology and establish a calendar for the debates. This ecclesiastical institution wants to conduct debates starting from Fokontany, moving through communes, then regions, provinces, and finally at the national level.
Yet since publishing a summary calendar on June 21, the FFKM has maintained prolonged silence on the subject. According to this calendar, after a preparation period during June and July, substantive debates will begin in August and conclude in March 2027. Synthesis work on "the people's aspirations" and drafting of technical documents are also planned during this period, as is the development of a draft Constitution and electoral law proposals.
According to reports, the FFKM is awaiting the return to the country of one of four church leaders currently abroad before addressing details of the consultation debate calendar. This uncertainty fuels questions about meeting deadlines affirmed by those in power.
In the Refoundation timeline submitted to the Southern African Development Community on February 28, the State commits to holding a referendum or constitutional election and presidential election before the end of 2027. However, national consultation is presented as an essential prerequisite for achieving necessary institutional refoundation before these elections.
Political Dialogue
Although summary, the calendar published by the Ecumenical Council disrupts various stages outlined in the State's timeline. However, concluding the consultation process by March 2027, as churches foresee, should allow staying on schedule for desired electoral deadlines. Yet each delay mechanically reduces room for maneuver and weakens the objective of closing the transition within allotted timeframes.
In this context, sectoral consultations leading to national consultation, including recent youth consultation, struggle to dispel doubts. The official launch of voter list reform nonetheless structures the electoral component of the process, aiming for a comprehensive, reliable voter register ready for possible electoral deadlines before end of 2027.
During a meeting with diaspora members in Egypt on Wednesday, Colonel Michaël Randrianirina, head of State, reaffirmed the objective of holding elections by end of 2027. He also introduced a new variable into the refoundation process. The Iavoloha resident announced that political dialogue is taking shape, with his early-week meeting with former presidents Marc Ravalomanana and Hery Rajaonarimampianina serving as a prelude.
The senior officer also indicated this political dialogue would proceed parallel to national consultation. "We will have further discussions and we'll see afterward how to conduct them. If this political dialogue goes well, there's no reason to doubt holding December 2027 elections," the head of State reportedly said, according to media accompanying the presidential Egypt trip.
This new configuration could reflect a desire to compartmentalize sensitive debates—isolating divisive questions like political preconditions for elections, eligibility conditions, and electoral rules within a purely political framework, allowing FFKM-led consultation to focus on constitutional and institutional reform.
It remains to be seen whether this separation will strengthen process efficiency or instead heighten suspicions of excluding certain actors, and whether both processes will truly advance in parallel or if political dialogue will ultimately take precedence.