The three-way meeting held last Monday at the Iavoloha State Palace could mark a decisive turning point in resolving the current political crisis. Three Against One An alliance aimed at excluding former President Andry Rajoelina from the national consultation process is taking shape. Last Monday, the Presidency of the Refoundation of the Republic of Madagascar published on its official page details of a meeting between Colonel Michaël Randrianirina and two former presidents Marc Ravalomanana and Hery Rajaonarimampianina at the Iavoloha State Palace. According to the statement, the meeting was initiated by the PRRM to discuss and exchange views on national affairs, in the absence of a Constitutional Council. The Presidency's communication revealed no details about the substance of this three-way meeting. In any case, all signs point toward an alliance forming between the Refoundation's power holders and the two former presidents. It should be noted that these three political forces—the Refoundation, Tiako I Madagasikara, and Hery Vaovao hoan'i Madagasikara—already share co-management within the current regime, as TIM and HVM each have ministers in the Mamitiana Rajaonarison Government. Moreover, many figures and supporters from these two former ruling parties occupy senior positions within the regime. The objective is clear: form a united front against deposed President Andry Rajoelina. He could be excluded from national consultation and permanently sidelined from the crisis resolution process, including the presidential election. Yet it cannot be ignored that as the last elected president overthrown by street protests in September-October 2025, the TGV leader is one of the main protagonists and a key actor in the current political crisis. His participation in the process, along with that of his supporters, is therefore essential for inclusivity and consensus conditions to be met. This is also one of the requirements of international bodies—the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the African Union, and the United Nations—to give credibility to national consultation. Open Field From the start, Refoundation leaders categorically deny Andry Rajoelina's involvement in the process. This explains why the withdrawal of the former president's Malagasy nationality was the very first decree signed by the regime's first government under Colonel Michaël Randrianirina. A decision clearly aimed at diminishing or eliminating the chances of the Volomboasary clan leader to run for another presidential term. This alliance, which could be described as somewhat unnatural, is not without risk, given that if Andry Rajoelina were to be disqualified from the race for the highest office, former President Marc Ravalomanana would have better chances than his two allies. Especially given his age, the next presidential election likely represents his last opportunity to return to power. For his part, Colonel Michaël Randrianirina makes no secret of his presidential ambitions. The founder of the Tiako I Madagasikara party, already equipped with a solid political base and significant supporters, will certainly not back down. It should be recalled that the former head of state and his party consistently placed second in recent elections held in the country, notably the presidential and municipal elections. In the second round of the 2018 presidential election, Marc Ravalomanana obtained 44.34% of votes against 55.66% for Andry Rajoelina. In 2023, Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko could not compete with Andry Rajoelina, obtaining 14.39% against 58.96% for the TGV candidate. In the absence of his eternal rival, the number one of the Tiko Empire could this time win by a large margin. Unless there is a deal to clear the field for Marc Ravalomanana, this 'alliance' could still hold surprises.